winningracingtips

Hello everyone,
I had hoped to be writing this after we’d turned the corner on the current run of results, particularly as I thought the last selection, Auroras Encore was a cracking bet. That one was another faller adding to a run of results this month which has seen 24 selections, five 4th placed horses, two fallers, one unseated rider, and crucially - no winners. It doesn’t look good on the face of it but whilst a lot of the selections have been let downs I know there hasn’t really been a lot of quality to choose from. I also know that I really should have picked out a 16/1 winner at Nad al Sheba earlier in the month, this horse was a typical type of bet that I would normally give out and I was annoyed with myself for missing it. So the long and short of it is that there is absolutely nothing wrong in the approach and the method has pulled though much worse periods in the past. I am actually looking forward to the new flat season and there is nothing to suggest that the change in seasons should not bring a profitable period.
Laying System Tips
As from April in addition to the current tips I’ll also be including the lay selections from my flat laying system that I have mentioned in the past. This system was something I was first aware of in 2006 when it seemed to show amazing results, I didn’t log them that year so I decided to follow it on paper in 2007. The results I recorded in 2007 where overall very encouraging: 228 selections, 145 bets won (horses lost) for a 64% strike rate at average lay odds of 2.4. Based on £50 stakes the profit was £1633, which equates to 32.7pts profit and an ROI of about 10%. This is all good but even better when you consider these profits were made mostly in a few summer months. I tried to be conservative with the results and used odds 10% above SP and a commission of 4.8% to work out the results. In reality a lot of these horses are drifters and I certainly think it would have been possible to bet closer than 10% to SP. I have confidence in this system and will be betting them. I cannot guarantee another profitable season for it but I am quietly confident and would be very surprised to see it make a significant loss. Of course it’s your choice whether you decide to follow it or not and I will email the spreadsheet to anyone interested.

Hello everyone,

Looking at the last post on here it seems I have been neglecting this blog a little! Reflecting back though October was bad month but it was sandwiched by 2 good months prior and another 2 following. Some members threw in the towel in October and missed out on the recovery months, these are the sort of punters bookies love as they never stick at anything long enough to make a decent profit even if it is profitable! I hope I have educated a few people to be more patient in their approach and allow for a longer term view that is essential to betting profitably. Although I offer 1 month memberships as an option, I’m sure that most educated bettors know that a longer period is required in order to evaluate it properly. This is a view that is backed up by the guys at “Secret Betting Club ” who have given Winning Racing Tips a “Hall of Fame” entry.
Short Priced Selections
I have stopped doing these very short selections that I was posting on the racing-systems forum. In the end the “inevitable” bad run hit and overall the profits that could be made were not worth the time/effort/risk involved and the ROI was not where I’d have liked it to be. That said, they were still showing a profit of about £600 for me and it must be one of very few threads on the forum that was left in profit!
Additional Tips
As my longer term members are aware, I always try and pass on any good betting opportunities I come across outside the normal each way selections. Sometimes these will be football or sports bets or horses that I’m betting to win, not each way. I only send these out if and when I have time so I don’t log the results the way I do with the e/w selections. Given the recent successes though it might be an idea to formalize these though so I’m asking for feedback from members here.
I’ve compiled February’s results below:
Arsenal @ 1.83 won +0.83
Aston Villa @2.3 lost -1
FUL/AV + 11 corners @2.0 won +1
LIV/SUN -11 corners @2.0 won +1
Treble 1 (from above 4) lost -1
Treble 2 (from above 4) won +6.32
Lay England @1.46 loss -1
Eng/Swiss -2.5 goals @ 1.8 -1
Ronaldo first GS @ 7/2 e/w loss -1
Villa first corner @8/11 loss -1
Portsmouth @ 1.66 won +0.66
Villa +0 @ 1.71 won +0.71
Blackburn @ 1.86 won +0.86
Treble (above 3 with Villa to win @11/8) won +6
JY Vole @4/6 loss -1
Cocoa Beech @10/11 won +0.91

Total: +11.29pts

So they’ve produced a pretty good return this month and they’ve added an extra dimension to the service. I’d be interested to hear from any members in regard to these and whether or not you are happy to receive them along with the each way tips. Also I’d appreciate feedback from members who call my phone line as I could also read them out after the daily message.

Price changes
Before I give you details of my new pricing, I want to state that YOUR price will NOT increase, as an existing member you are locked in at the rate you signed up on and are guaranteed this price as long as I run the service.
I’ve reviewed my subscription rates for new members and have decided to make some slight increases to the shorter term subscriptions and offer a new 1 Year rate. These changes reflect both the 20 month history of the service and the emphasis on long term profits.
I am also happy to offer a special discount to existing members only who upgrade the new 1 year rate.
New prices: (effective from 10/3/08)
1 month £39.95
3 month £99.95
6 month £169.95
12 month £299.95

If you’ve already been with me a long time and are likely to stay a member why not sign up now for 12 months and claim 10% discount off the above price? This will bring the price down to £269.96 which works out to just £22.50 per month. To take advantage of this offer you should enter the code 1E7A on the signup page. This offer will remain open for a limited time only.

Thats all for now, I’ve no doubt you are looking forward to Cheltenham as much as I am, particularly the Kauto Star/Denman clash. The flat is also just around the corner and spring is almost upon us! I’ll be operating a flat laying system that I’ve trialled the whole of 2007 from the start of April - more news on that another time.

All the best,

Paul

Hi,

I am out of the office and unable to update the normal page today.

There is one selection:

2.05 Plumpton 3. Noble Ben 0.4pt e/w (13/2 Totesport)

I have just finished updating the website and spreadsheet for the past month of October, a task I don’t find exciting at the best of times but it can be damn right painful when the results have been poor - And they have. It does help to reflect on past performance though which can help highlight any mistakes and show where things went wrong. I know that that some of the races we have bet in we have just had rotten luck, such as when Pertinent fell when in contention and booked for a place on the 13th of Oct. However luck evens out over time and therefore we must take the rough with the smooth. What the results clearly show is 6 “near misses” which finished 4th (I hate 4th) and also 4 “off the bar” 2nd places, if just one these had won the results would be a whole lot better. But perhaps the most eye-catching figure is the recent success percentage, that is the percentage of horses that place or win, this has dropped right off and for October was a mere 17%. Quite simply this is not good enough, and I’ll be looking very hard at getting this back to normal in the immediate future. This doesn’t mean that I will be making a knee-jerk reaction and changing my approach, I know my approach is sound. It may mean dealing with certain races differently though, as I feel the problem has stemmed from races in which there is a decent horse for us on paper but where there are simply too many others also with place possibilities. This may or may not mean fewer selections over the coming weeks; I cannot predict what races I will be looking at. I am happy that my membership has now “matured” to the stage where most of my members can accept that losing periods are unavoidable, and would like to thank all of you for having faith. As usual I cannot say when the next winner will be but only that I remain focused and confident of future profits.

As a side note, the weather which had played a big part in messing up the summer racing with all the rain, is now not playing ball at the time of year it should be raining! This has meant the horses that prefer cut in the ground haven’t been out yet and resulted in small fields and fewer opportunities for us. We all know it will rain though so no worries there!

On to other news, we have picked a nice couple of winners the last couple of weekends with the additional sports recommendations with both the Boxing bets on Joe Calzaghe and David Haye winning impressively. My other horse racing interest - the short priced place selections, have been ticking along since the last update in September without making any massive gains, the profits have been up and down but are currently over £1000 up since I started them. I’m still quite excited about the longer term potential of them and will be looking to evaluate them at the turn of the year. If you wan to follow them you can do so via the forum thread in which I post them (see my previous Blog post).

I will have some other betting systems updates for you soon but enough of my ramblings for now!

Oh dear. I’m sure everyone has weeks they wish hadn’t happened and the last week was one of them, from a betting and perspective and as an England fan. If I’d stayed in the peat bog at Woodbury common last Sunday instead of dragging myself through it, maybe I’d have avoided the miserable week’s work that was to follow. The horse racing results have been very unkind, leaving the results for October looking like someone has taken an axe and hacked into the profit graph. Whilst I know this will turn around in time and that the overall results are massively in our favour, a run of this kind always bothers me. The triple calamity of England’s footballers being virtually knocked out of Euro 2008, the England Rugby Hero’s narrowly missing out in the World Cup Final, and then the final straw last night which saw Lewis Hamilton fluffing his lines on his big day has hardly helped to lift spirits. Being an Aston Villa fan I expect to get salt rubbed into my wounds which happened on Saturday when we were thrashed by Man Utd in a game that I lost another £150 as I layed “over 4.5 goals”.
That last bet just about sums up the week when even collecting on South Africa at 13/2 has felt like a kick in the cojones.

I mentioned a couple of times over the last few weeks that I was looking into a new way of making betting profits and that I was putting myself on trial to see if this new approach had any legs. I have been very happy with the results that I have achieved so far and with that in mind I’m happy to share more details including the future selections with you. Please forgive me for not giving out any of the tips so far to you that no doubt would have made you some good money but I didn’t know for sure that the results would be good. I must stress that this is still in the early stages for me and I do not want it to distract from my main each way service which is performing so well. The approach is basically looking for things that I think “will happen” i.e a strong favourite to finish in the first three, and backing them at odds that still provide good enough returns (via the Betfair Place market). I often come across such bets whilst I’m going through the cards looking for my each way bets.

Ok, so here are the all important figures so far: 52 selections 50 winners. 7.83pts to level stakes profit. £942 profit from a £400 bank using my staking plan.

You can see all of the past results and a full explanation on this thread:
(I deliberately chose this board as I wanted it to be kept low key)

http://www.racing-systems.co.uk/cgi-bin/boardp//discussion.pl?forum=2&discussion=4974

If this continues to go well I do plan to set up a separate service selling the tips although this wont be until many more results have been proofed. In the meantime if any of you want to follow the selections then you can do so via the above thread, however I make no guarantees with regards to performance and I would suggest that you start small and certainly do not use your each way betting funds. Since the selections are mostly quite “liquidity sensitive” I only expect to sustain about a quarter of the current membership size of Winning Racing Tips to allow people to get on. So please be aware that this will not be a large scale opportunity and if people start backing these before I set up a membership site the prices might not be attainable.

Hello,
Today I am writing from a Starbucks in Ipswich!
I have one selection today:
4.50 Leicester Kings Wonder 0.3pt e/w with Bet365, Bluesq or Betdirect.

August has been well and truly a strange month in terms of results for my service. Just when it appeared that we were coming out of a losing run the selection on Thursday Danish Blues stood rooted to the spot in the stalls and that it appeared lady luck had frowned upon us once again as the 1pt selection went down without even running in the race. But how quickly that loss was forgotten today as two of the three selections came in to record one of the best days the service has seen. The day started with the first selection Cow Girl coming in a comfortable third and returning stakes for most and giving a small profit at SP. This was a race that highlighted the importance of the third place payout as the top three in the market were always going to be the only horses to contest the finish. The 2nd selection of the day was a newcomer Perfect Stride which was a little bit of a speculative selection and hence only a 0.5pt bet at 5/1, everything looked right about this horse and the favourite looked over rated but I always like to exercise caution when the animal hasn’t raced. Misplaced caution in this instance though as the horse looked to live up to its big sales price and sneaked in by what on most TV’s was less than a pixel! With the last selection of the day (Demolition) I had a small suspicion that the general view of the form on show was off the mark and really liked the early 16/1 on offer. Demolition really completed the job nicely for us as it turned over the 4/11 favourite, the only negative being the rather shameful 8/1 that was returned at SP. I hope that most members got on at 16/1 though which was available with at least 4 separate bookies at lunchtime. Today has given the overall results for the month a big boost and although I’ve yet to tidy them all up I’m pretty sure that most members will have recorded profit once again, which I’m quite happy about given the losing run sustained. It also goes to show that there is no way I, or anyone else, can predict or deliver results that sit in neat and tidy order with regular winners. It just has to be accepted that over the course of hundreds of selections we are generally well in front.

The third maximum stake bet of the month Alhabeeb came in yesterday at 6/1 (5/1 advised) to record a much needed 1st win of the month. This race was notable for the market which was amazingly in favour of the each way bet on Alhabeeb. According to the market (and my analysis) there were only three horses that could win, the rest of the horses were priced at 250 or over on Betfair! This effectively made any of the top three “bankers” to place and at a nice each way friendly 5/1 Alhabeeb was a a prefect example of an “Each Way Steal”. The place price on Betfair was down as low as 1.26 on Betfair, and whilst the win price drifted to 12.0, this was more likely due to people laying off the win part of their each way bet in order to maximise their place profit as described in the Value Horse Method rather than an accurate reflection of its win chances, as I thought this was the case I added to my each way bet with a small additional win bet!

Today’s horse Magical Wonderland went on to win its race, but will not be included in my results as the withdrawal of the race favourite made our horse the new favourite with an SP of 7/4 - not a feasible each way price. Congratulations if you let your bet ride rather than lay off and won on the race! In this instance it is not the end of the world if you let your bet stand as the selection is likely to have better win chances anyway without the favourite running so the Rule 4 imposed would simply reflect the new chances, the only problem would have been if the runners had been reduced below 8, but that is another issue which I’ve already covered.

Often I get asked about the problems non runners can cause us with regard to each way betting.
The problem is when a race gets reduced from 8 or more runners to less than 8 the bookmakers then change the place terms to 1/4 the odds for places 1-2. This 3rd place is often critical to us as often there are 2 or 3 horses that are likely to contest the race. So what can we do? Well firstly I would advise leaving it as long as possible before placing an each way bet in a race with 8 runners, this may often mean missing an early price but it is better to know what terms you are betting on. The factors that may bring on more non runners than usual are factors such as poor weather or ground that is already soft or heavy. Be particularly careful under these conditions as even 10 or 12 runner races can sometimes be reduced to below 8 if there is unsuitable ground.
Generally speaking this non runner issue doesn’t come in to play very often but it is something all members need to be aware of. With regards to reversing a bet already placed, you do have the option of laying off with Betfair however this can create further problems as the Betfair place market does not change with Non Runners, therefore I think this is best left to those with experience in making these calculations.

The poor run we are on is dragging on but I am determined to turn this around. To be clear about this though, this may take weeks, it may take months, to me the most important thing will always be the long term outcome.