winningracingtips

Dear Members,
Firstly I’d like to thank you all for your continued support this year, it has been an up and down year but overall a profitable one and one in which I feel I have learned a lot. 2009 will see the 3rd birthday for Winning Racing Tips and I hope will see the service grow further both in terms of profitability and stature.
Each Way Tips
In terms of profits a return as things stand of just over 20 pts represents over 50% bank growth. This means someone operating a £2000 bank would have made around £1000 before costs and someone using £4000 around £2000. This is pretty good when compared to any other form of investing but I aspire to greater things than this performance especially given the previous years performance. Although it should be noted that my staking is undoubtedly more conservative now than when I started out. Bank preservation is always at the forefront of my mind and it must not be forgotten that many tipster services will have ceased to exist this year and afforded punters lots of hard earned, therefore any profit at all in this game is not to be frowned upon. That said I don’t think it is unreasonable to hope for the bank to be doubled over the course of 12 months with these selections, and that doubling of the bank is at the back of mind throughout the year as a target. Looking in closer detail at the results this year and it is easy to point a finger at March as the disaster area. I was very surprised by results at the time which saw the worst month since November 06 when the service was still in its infancy. It is possible that I jumped on too many opportunities in March and that is something I hope I have learned from. There on in apart from a sticky patch in June and July results were actually OK. It must also be noted that we “hit the bar” on at least two occasions with our each way doubles, twice we had a winner and 2nd placed horse. On the 14th August Sunny Future got beaten by 11/1 shot Such Optimism and foiled what would have been a 43/1 double and a return of around 15pts. So all in all things are looking up and not that far off where I’d like them to be. And most importantly the Each Way bets continue to provide a low risk opportunity for very good long term bank growth.

Lay Tips (April - Nov only)
I introduced these this year as I had already decided to bet my own cash on these simple system lays.
The proofed results show a small profit which is encouraging, but perhaps more significant was the odds that produced the best returns.
As I used the principle of 1pt per lay rather than 1pt liability this resulted in results that were perhaps worse than they should have been.
To explain: We made a profit of 4.74 pts (1.46% ROI) laying each for 1pt without taking into account liability. If you had used 1pt liability for each bet this would have been 13.71pts (6% ROI) - Quite a jump. So it is fairly safe to assume that the staking was wrong.
Secondly there was an obvious pattern that showed that the majority of profits were from the shorter priced lays. i.e. the shorter the price the higher the ROI.
To explain, all selections: MAX SP 2/1 produced 228 sels, 13.71 pts profit with an ROI of 6%.
Cut them down to selections with a MAX SP of 7/4 and you get: 184 sels, 14.5pts profit, 7.9% ROI.
At 6/4: 145, 11.34, 7.8%.
and 5/4: 122, 12.21, 10.9%
Evens: 85, 9.77, 11.5%
4/5: 62, 13.06, 21%.

There is an obvious bias of profits and the short end of the range. This is something that I think needs taking into consideration for 2009. However we must bear in mind that this is a small sample and that overall the 2/1 system is profitable and provides the most selections. Also, that we used SP not Betfair SP for this analysis. For 2009 I plan to give out all the possible selections as per 2008 but will be recommending liability staking and taking prices as close to the off as possible. The reason for taking prices close to the off rather than whenever it is low enough is because there seemed to be many occasions when I had layed a horse at 3.0 only for it to go off much shorter.
Where you set the cut off point for laying is up to you, I am thinking of using 2.75 rather than the 3.0 of last season. Certainly the absolute max must be 3.0 however there may be better returns for those that only play the very short ones. I will give you my official recommendation come April. (As a side note I am interested in hearing from anyone who knows the best software to lay these. The parameter needs to be as an example: if under 2.75, 2mins to off then lay to “X” liability.)

Bonus Bets
The 1000 pt bank for the bonus bets stands at 693 now which is pretty poor to be frank. That said I did only start recording these properly in March and I know there was significant profit prior to then. Overall I plan to be avoiding the more obvious bets and being more selective with these.

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