winningracingtips

It’s been a while since my last post and a lot has been gong on with the service. Generally speaking the Each Way Value selections have been making hay whilst the Lay selections have suffered from a poor run of results over the last couple of months.
I have just updated the results spreadsheet which you can download from the performance page on the website and before I go any further I want to let you know about a couple of changes I will be making in that respect. Firstly the fastrack plans spreadsheet I have been using for over two years is very long winded to complete and whats more only shows results to SP. I will introduce a new tab with the each way selections on from next month which will be easier to read and will include results to advised prices and show the odds taken. This will coincide with a general move away from showing results at SP to showing results at advised prices. I can appreciate that some people may see this as an attempt to massage results so I want to make it clear as to the reasons for this: Tipster services generally will not make any profits to SP over the long term as eventually any egde that they did have over the bookies will be swallowed up by overbet selections and reduced SPs, the fact that my service has made money at SP and continues to do so is for the most part down to the fact that we take advantage of “overbroke” place markets. However the bookies have changed the way they calculate SPs since I started the service, they now use a sample of on course bookmakers that offer each way terms as oppose to “win only” which is often offered in the markets we bet in. Without going into too much technical details this was always going to have a detrimental effect on the SP from out point of view. In any case betting at an “SP” which as we know often turns out way different to what we expected is a very amateurish way of betting, I do not know anyone who sets out to bet this way. So it is about time that we switched focus to the ACTUAL profits that are available following the tips, which are profits to the advised prices that I myself take and make sure are available to all members at the time of the message. Results to SP will still be available and will of course continue to serve as a useful barometer.
Ok, back to the actual performance. I was very happy with August and September on the each ways, these two months alone have put us back on track for a half decent year after a poor 1st half. Having said that the luck has not always been on our side recently as without the late withdrawal of a 200/1 shot Bathwick Man would have returned our 0.8 e/w bet on the 12th of Sept as it finished 3rd of the new 7 runner field. October has had an annoying start with 3 straight 4th places.
Before I talk about the system lays it is important to remember that they are still in their infancy. A couple of hundred selections compared to around 900 for the each ways. So we are still learning about how they are likely to perform long term.
After a very promising start to this (flat) season the results turned the other way quite sharply and it is looking more like a break even situation for the system over the course of the whole season (April-Nov). Analysing the results though confirmed a couple of interesting observations of mine. The major point of note is that there seems to be a real stacking of profits at the shorter end of the odds range, the principle of the system is that the shorter they are the better value they are and the results bears this theory out. In fact if we had only layed the 5/4 shots and under we’d be looking at an ROI of around 17% - virtually unheard of when laying short priced favourites. Having had a quick look at last years results that I recorded, this seems to have been the case last year as well. The second is the bias of profits at the start of the season, which has been very noticeable this season but is contrasted by a smooth growth throughout the whole of last season. So I’ll have another look at the end of this month, but overall it seems that we may be better off reducing the bets and laying at lower odds next year. The last thing I want to say about the lays is with regards to the staking, I think overall the theory of laying each horse to the same amount is not good, it makes things perhaps straightforward on paper but in actuality laying to level stakes means the same liability NOT the same lay stake. With that in mind I think the advised staking will also have to be amended next season to give a much more smoother ride.
On the whole the service is strong and the last couple of months have proved that there is still plenty of each way steals out there!
I hope to get this Blog replaced with an AD FREE version soon as the ads weren’t part of the deal when I signed up for it!

And lastly look out for a very special membership deal which I’ll be offering to a very small number of members/ex-members soon.