winningracingtips

August has been well and truly a strange month in terms of results for my service. Just when it appeared that we were coming out of a losing run the selection on Thursday Danish Blues stood rooted to the spot in the stalls and that it appeared lady luck had frowned upon us once again as the 1pt selection went down without even running in the race. But how quickly that loss was forgotten today as two of the three selections came in to record one of the best days the service has seen. The day started with the first selection Cow Girl coming in a comfortable third and returning stakes for most and giving a small profit at SP. This was a race that highlighted the importance of the third place payout as the top three in the market were always going to be the only horses to contest the finish. The 2nd selection of the day was a newcomer Perfect Stride which was a little bit of a speculative selection and hence only a 0.5pt bet at 5/1, everything looked right about this horse and the favourite looked over rated but I always like to exercise caution when the animal hasn’t raced. Misplaced caution in this instance though as the horse looked to live up to its big sales price and sneaked in by what on most TV’s was less than a pixel! With the last selection of the day (Demolition) I had a small suspicion that the general view of the form on show was off the mark and really liked the early 16/1 on offer. Demolition really completed the job nicely for us as it turned over the 4/11 favourite, the only negative being the rather shameful 8/1 that was returned at SP. I hope that most members got on at 16/1 though which was available with at least 4 separate bookies at lunchtime. Today has given the overall results for the month a big boost and although I’ve yet to tidy them all up I’m pretty sure that most members will have recorded profit once again, which I’m quite happy about given the losing run sustained. It also goes to show that there is no way I, or anyone else, can predict or deliver results that sit in neat and tidy order with regular winners. It just has to be accepted that over the course of hundreds of selections we are generally well in front.

The third maximum stake bet of the month Alhabeeb came in yesterday at 6/1 (5/1 advised) to record a much needed 1st win of the month. This race was notable for the market which was amazingly in favour of the each way bet on Alhabeeb. According to the market (and my analysis) there were only three horses that could win, the rest of the horses were priced at 250 or over on Betfair! This effectively made any of the top three “bankers” to place and at a nice each way friendly 5/1 Alhabeeb was a a prefect example of an “Each Way Steal”. The place price on Betfair was down as low as 1.26 on Betfair, and whilst the win price drifted to 12.0, this was more likely due to people laying off the win part of their each way bet in order to maximise their place profit as described in the Value Horse Method rather than an accurate reflection of its win chances, as I thought this was the case I added to my each way bet with a small additional win bet!

Today’s horse Magical Wonderland went on to win its race, but will not be included in my results as the withdrawal of the race favourite made our horse the new favourite with an SP of 7/4 - not a feasible each way price. Congratulations if you let your bet ride rather than lay off and won on the race! In this instance it is not the end of the world if you let your bet stand as the selection is likely to have better win chances anyway without the favourite running so the Rule 4 imposed would simply reflect the new chances, the only problem would have been if the runners had been reduced below 8, but that is another issue which I’ve already covered.

Often I get asked about the problems non runners can cause us with regard to each way betting.
The problem is when a race gets reduced from 8 or more runners to less than 8 the bookmakers then change the place terms to 1/4 the odds for places 1-2. This 3rd place is often critical to us as often there are 2 or 3 horses that are likely to contest the race. So what can we do? Well firstly I would advise leaving it as long as possible before placing an each way bet in a race with 8 runners, this may often mean missing an early price but it is better to know what terms you are betting on. The factors that may bring on more non runners than usual are factors such as poor weather or ground that is already soft or heavy. Be particularly careful under these conditions as even 10 or 12 runner races can sometimes be reduced to below 8 if there is unsuitable ground.
Generally speaking this non runner issue doesn’t come in to play very often but it is something all members need to be aware of. With regards to reversing a bet already placed, you do have the option of laying off with Betfair however this can create further problems as the Betfair place market does not change with Non Runners, therefore I think this is best left to those with experience in making these calculations.

The poor run we are on is dragging on but I am determined to turn this around. To be clear about this though, this may take weeks, it may take months, to me the most important thing will always be the long term outcome.

Firstly, I do not want to dwell on recent performance too much as I know most of you understand that losing runs are an unfortunate but integral part of the game, especially when operating outside of the market favourites as I do. I will say that it seems to be the norm that whenever I hit a poor run of results I typically get at least one disgruntled member email me and a number of cancellations, this is normally followed by an upturn in results that the people that just quit miss out on!

I make no promises with respect to results, it is impossible to do so, but I use a specific value driven approach that has generated great returns over an extended period and I fully expect it to continue to do so. It goes down to the key qualities we all need to get in front and stay in front in the long term - Discipline and Patience.

Now on to the subject matter, I am pleased to announce that I am now able to offer all members telephone access to the daily information. This will be via a PIN protected members line on 08718 776666 (National rate). The number and the current PIN will be on the members page and emailed out tomorrow. I will change the PIN no. weekly.

On another note a couple of weeks ago I mentioned about a completely new approach to making money which I was working on. Well I have had a loser using this approach now, but that was the only one out of 17 bets! Now before you get carried away with the 95% strike rate let me tell you that the profits only amount to 2.36LSP and it is still early days. I am already putting some of my money on these and I am quite hopeful. However I will want to test this for at least 3 months before I even consider giving the tips out to paying subscribers. The odds for these bets have ranged from 1.10 to 1.36 and I am using an aggressive staking plan to hopefully provide rapid bank growth.

Lastly, I have finished the spreadsheet for the 2yo simple laying system that I have mentioned in the past. This shows 118 selections, 74 losers for a strike rate of 63% all at odds of under 2/1. The average SP was 1.28 (close to 13/10) and the profit is over £1000 using £50 lay stakes since the start of the flat in April. I worked out the ROI to be about 14% and this was based on a conservative estimate of 7% above SP lay prices and a 5% commission. As far as lay systems go this is impressive indeed. I am happy to share this system with any member who is interested.

Ok, so results wise we’ve had a pretty mediocre summer so far, and a torrid start to August. As I’ve already said before I believe number of factors have conspired against us in respect to this- The wet weather affecting ground conditions and the horses that can run, the actual races available to us, etc, etc. However looking back at the results and having inputted the actual advised prices (which are easily attainable most of the time) it reveals a much brighter picture with significantly better returns.
May profit/loss to advised stakes at SP was £-84. Compared to £143 at advised prices.
June profit/loss to advised stakes at SP was £9. Compared to £129 at advised prices.
July profit/loss to advised stakes at SP was £186. Compared to £286 at advised prices.
Over the 3 month period that is a profit of £111 at SP compared to £558 at advised prices.

Thats an extra £447 in profit simply from taking the advised early prices. In summary the summer racing over the 3 month period has provided a modest profit to SP but taking a wider view reveals a much more satisfactory profit to advised prices.

Todays selection Asiatic Boy finished in 4th place in the Sussex Stakes and I thought it would be good to share my thoughts with you on this…

I’ll hold my hands up a say that on this occasion I think I was wrong, the selection was outside the type of bet parameters I normally give and I also broke my rule of avoiding top class races. I felt that there were only 4 horses that could place which turned out to be the case, unfortunately for us ours filled that 4th place by a very small margin. Effectively my thinking was that we had a 75% chance of the horse placing with a very good chance of the win if the horse could reproduce its form from the dirt surface. However there were factors such as the jockey’s lack of experience at the track which possibly went against us, that I overlooked. It does frustrate me not to give out any selections as I always have a thorough look at each days races. Days like today though highlight that the best course of action would have been another no bet day.

On a positive note the back-end of the flat season produced excellent profits for my each way bets last year and there is no reason why the same cant happen this year. Aside from that, I’m also testing out a completely different approach for making money which I’m quite hopeful about. I won’t give out any more details at this time though until I’ve proofed to myself for at least one or two months to see if it has any promise. Stay tuned!