winningracingtips

Dear Members,
Firstly I’d like to thank you all for your continued support this year, it has been an up and down year but overall a profitable one and one in which I feel I have learned a lot. 2009 will see the 3rd birthday for Winning Racing Tips and I hope will see the service grow further both in terms of profitability and stature.
Each Way Tips
In terms of profits a return as things stand of just over 20 pts represents over 50% bank growth. This means someone operating a £2000 bank would have made around £1000 before costs and someone using £4000 around £2000. This is pretty good when compared to any other form of investing but I aspire to greater things than this performance especially given the previous years performance. Although it should be noted that my staking is undoubtedly more conservative now than when I started out. Bank preservation is always at the forefront of my mind and it must not be forgotten that many tipster services will have ceased to exist this year and afforded punters lots of hard earned, therefore any profit at all in this game is not to be frowned upon. That said I don’t think it is unreasonable to hope for the bank to be doubled over the course of 12 months with these selections, and that doubling of the bank is at the back of mind throughout the year as a target. Looking in closer detail at the results this year and it is easy to point a finger at March as the disaster area. I was very surprised by results at the time which saw the worst month since November 06 when the service was still in its infancy. It is possible that I jumped on too many opportunities in March and that is something I hope I have learned from. There on in apart from a sticky patch in June and July results were actually OK. It must also be noted that we “hit the bar” on at least two occasions with our each way doubles, twice we had a winner and 2nd placed horse. On the 14th August Sunny Future got beaten by 11/1 shot Such Optimism and foiled what would have been a 43/1 double and a return of around 15pts. So all in all things are looking up and not that far off where I’d like them to be. And most importantly the Each Way bets continue to provide a low risk opportunity for very good long term bank growth.

Lay Tips (April - Nov only)
I introduced these this year as I had already decided to bet my own cash on these simple system lays.
The proofed results show a small profit which is encouraging, but perhaps more significant was the odds that produced the best returns.
As I used the principle of 1pt per lay rather than 1pt liability this resulted in results that were perhaps worse than they should have been.
To explain: We made a profit of 4.74 pts (1.46% ROI) laying each for 1pt without taking into account liability. If you had used 1pt liability for each bet this would have been 13.71pts (6% ROI) - Quite a jump. So it is fairly safe to assume that the staking was wrong.
Secondly there was an obvious pattern that showed that the majority of profits were from the shorter priced lays. i.e. the shorter the price the higher the ROI.
To explain, all selections: MAX SP 2/1 produced 228 sels, 13.71 pts profit with an ROI of 6%.
Cut them down to selections with a MAX SP of 7/4 and you get: 184 sels, 14.5pts profit, 7.9% ROI.
At 6/4: 145, 11.34, 7.8%.
and 5/4: 122, 12.21, 10.9%
Evens: 85, 9.77, 11.5%
4/5: 62, 13.06, 21%.

There is an obvious bias of profits and the short end of the range. This is something that I think needs taking into consideration for 2009. However we must bear in mind that this is a small sample and that overall the 2/1 system is profitable and provides the most selections. Also, that we used SP not Betfair SP for this analysis. For 2009 I plan to give out all the possible selections as per 2008 but will be recommending liability staking and taking prices as close to the off as possible. The reason for taking prices close to the off rather than whenever it is low enough is because there seemed to be many occasions when I had layed a horse at 3.0 only for it to go off much shorter.
Where you set the cut off point for laying is up to you, I am thinking of using 2.75 rather than the 3.0 of last season. Certainly the absolute max must be 3.0 however there may be better returns for those that only play the very short ones. I will give you my official recommendation come April. (As a side note I am interested in hearing from anyone who knows the best software to lay these. The parameter needs to be as an example: if under 2.75, 2mins to off then lay to “X” liability.)

Bonus Bets
The 1000 pt bank for the bonus bets stands at 693 now which is pretty poor to be frank. That said I did only start recording these properly in March and I know there was significant profit prior to then. Overall I plan to be avoiding the more obvious bets and being more selective with these.

It’s been a while since my last post and a lot has been gong on with the service. Generally speaking the Each Way Value selections have been making hay whilst the Lay selections have suffered from a poor run of results over the last couple of months.
I have just updated the results spreadsheet which you can download from the performance page on the website and before I go any further I want to let you know about a couple of changes I will be making in that respect. Firstly the fastrack plans spreadsheet I have been using for over two years is very long winded to complete and whats more only shows results to SP. I will introduce a new tab with the each way selections on from next month which will be easier to read and will include results to advised prices and show the odds taken. This will coincide with a general move away from showing results at SP to showing results at advised prices. I can appreciate that some people may see this as an attempt to massage results so I want to make it clear as to the reasons for this: Tipster services generally will not make any profits to SP over the long term as eventually any egde that they did have over the bookies will be swallowed up by overbet selections and reduced SPs, the fact that my service has made money at SP and continues to do so is for the most part down to the fact that we take advantage of “overbroke” place markets. However the bookies have changed the way they calculate SPs since I started the service, they now use a sample of on course bookmakers that offer each way terms as oppose to “win only” which is often offered in the markets we bet in. Without going into too much technical details this was always going to have a detrimental effect on the SP from out point of view. In any case betting at an “SP” which as we know often turns out way different to what we expected is a very amateurish way of betting, I do not know anyone who sets out to bet this way. So it is about time that we switched focus to the ACTUAL profits that are available following the tips, which are profits to the advised prices that I myself take and make sure are available to all members at the time of the message. Results to SP will still be available and will of course continue to serve as a useful barometer.
Ok, back to the actual performance. I was very happy with August and September on the each ways, these two months alone have put us back on track for a half decent year after a poor 1st half. Having said that the luck has not always been on our side recently as without the late withdrawal of a 200/1 shot Bathwick Man would have returned our 0.8 e/w bet on the 12th of Sept as it finished 3rd of the new 7 runner field. October has had an annoying start with 3 straight 4th places.
Before I talk about the system lays it is important to remember that they are still in their infancy. A couple of hundred selections compared to around 900 for the each ways. So we are still learning about how they are likely to perform long term.
After a very promising start to this (flat) season the results turned the other way quite sharply and it is looking more like a break even situation for the system over the course of the whole season (April-Nov). Analysing the results though confirmed a couple of interesting observations of mine. The major point of note is that there seems to be a real stacking of profits at the shorter end of the odds range, the principle of the system is that the shorter they are the better value they are and the results bears this theory out. In fact if we had only layed the 5/4 shots and under we’d be looking at an ROI of around 17% - virtually unheard of when laying short priced favourites. Having had a quick look at last years results that I recorded, this seems to have been the case last year as well. The second is the bias of profits at the start of the season, which has been very noticeable this season but is contrasted by a smooth growth throughout the whole of last season. So I’ll have another look at the end of this month, but overall it seems that we may be better off reducing the bets and laying at lower odds next year. The last thing I want to say about the lays is with regards to the staking, I think overall the theory of laying each horse to the same amount is not good, it makes things perhaps straightforward on paper but in actuality laying to level stakes means the same liability NOT the same lay stake. With that in mind I think the advised staking will also have to be amended next season to give a much more smoother ride.
On the whole the service is strong and the last couple of months have proved that there is still plenty of each way steals out there!
I hope to get this Blog replaced with an AD FREE version soon as the ads weren’t part of the deal when I signed up for it!

And lastly look out for a very special membership deal which I’ll be offering to a very small number of members/ex-members soon.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the system lays that I’ve been giving out since April this year have really been bringing home the bacon so far this season. As you will no doubt know one of the stipulations, and indeed a core part of the system is to only lay selections up to a maximum of 3.0 or 2/1 in traditional odds. As people will lay their bets at different times and the Betfair markets can fluctuate dramatically during the course of a day this can lead to different results being achieved by different people following the lays. With this in mind the proofed (to Racing Index) selections have the simple stipulation that the industry SP must be 2/1 or under. This gives a fairly accurate account of what would and wouldn’t have been traded. In actuality though I am pleased to report that I have achieved results superior to the proofed results, this could be because I only lay upto 3.0 on the exchange whereas the proofed results would take the Betfair starting price for a 2/1 shot, which has been as high 3.65 on one occasion. It’s interesting to note that for all of the horses that have an SP of exactly 2/1 I have been matched on all of them at or below 3.0 on Betfair. This indicates a general trend for these horses drifting, which brings me on to the next point - Trading out of drifters. There have been at least 4 occasions this season when I have thought it prudent to trade out of a position before the start of a race due to a massive drift in price. As an example most recently Derbass won at 2/1 on the 25th July. I laid this horse for £53.00 at 2.36 around midday. However before the start of the race it was available to back as high as 3.65 which was the cue for me to “close”. Generally speaking I will choose to lose my liability on a horse if I can get out whilst still keeping about 50% of the original profit on the horse losing. In this example that was something I was able to do by backing at 3.65 with £27 which meant a 40p loss if the horse won and a £26 profit(less comm.) if it didn’t. In this case the strategy saved me around £72.
Another point to consider in order to maximise your profit and use your betting funds most effectively is the staking. They lays are proofed to £50 a lay which is fine for proofing purposes as it gives a standardized look to the results. In practice though I am almost certain it is not the best strategy. I personally have found that working from a base of £1000, £80 is an acceptable level for the maximum liability, which means most of the horses end up being laid for £40 to £80. I do however “bend” this rule when I come across a very short priced horse, I have generally drawn the line at a maximum lay stake of £100, this keeps my losses small when the very short ones win, which they often do of course, and I’m sure it gives some more stability to the bank. This does have a flip side though and we saw a good example of this today when the system threw up Prime Mood which went and got beat at 1/7 (ouch!). I made a nice £100 on this but it is worth bearing in mind that a fixed liability of £80 would have collected a sum in the region of £500 from the unfortunate backer! I will stick to the above staking method though as I am of the opinion that this will allow for a smoother growth curve over the long term.

The stats and graphs for the lays are now included in the results spreadsheet which you can download from the performance page at winningracingtips.co.uk.

Its been an interesting first half to the year, but profit wise one to forget - at least on the each way front. I haven’t yet done the full figures but I think we are going to be looking at a break even or marginal profit situation to advised stakes/odds. This is far from the worst case scenario though and the most important thing will always be to keep the betting bank intact, awaiting periods of greater profitability during these lean spells.

For those of you who are yet to start making money from the lays this year the performance so far makes pretty good reading. You can see the proofed results at Racing Index and when you compare all lay tipsters since 1/4/08 (when the system started) these selections come out top of the pile! - From around 80 services. It is possible that we have already had the majority of this years profits out of this system so don’t get too carried away with stakes, but with last years data and now with this season almost sure to end with big profits things are looking good for this system. I have been working on a base of 8% liability per bet and although this is certainly not a low risk staking strategy it has effectively doubled my starting bank since April.

Whilst browsing the Racing Index results I decided to look at the real LONG TERM results of the backing tipsters and this was sobering to say the least. When all tipsters are compared over the maximum time span, which without going into archived results means 01/01/07 - to date, winningracaingtipsew is one of only three tipsters that have been able to make a profit at SP and that have proofed over the entire period. It just goes to show how difficult LONG TERM performance is to sustain. WRT was top of the Racing Index tables for a large part of last year, and whilst I doubt this will ever happen again, (due to the results now being graded on Betfair performance, which is the not where wrt bets should be placed) I remain confident that the service remains one of the best out there, especially when advised prices are taken into account.

Good Morning

Todays message is again on winningracingtips.today.com as I have had problems getting my wifi to work!
I am operating as normal though.

Each Way Value
No selections today.
I had one selection pencelled in today but that has been scuppered by non runners.
I was also interested in FAvourite Girl in the 7.10 race, but the jockey has an appalling record with the trainer, failing to notch up a single winner from 75 runs on 2yo´s. On formt he horse could go well but with a stat like that I want better than 5/1.

Bonus Bets
Euro 2008
Austria v Croatia
Croatia to win @ 1.96 or better 3% stake (30pts).

Lays (Only lay ay 3.0 or under)
1.50 Catterick 1. Effort , 8. Ykikiamoocow, 4. Senor Mirasol
6.25 Bath 4. Mesyaal
6.45 Goodwood 8. Woolston Ferry, 6. Sohcahtoa
7.10 Doncaster 2. Waregate, 3. Jimwil

Here is today’s info, I hope to be able to provide a full update on the website situation later today.

Each Way Value:
4.30 Ripon 7. Moothir 0.2pt e/w (20/1 Bluesquare/888sport)

Bonus Bets/Comments:
Lays (These are only selections if they can be matched at under 3.0)
4.30 Ripon 4. Taazur
6.50 Folkstone 11. Tropical Paradise

Each Way Value:
One more race today,
7.15 Thirsk 1. Presvis 0.5pt e/w (5/1 Bet365*/Ladbrokes/Hills)
7.15 Thirsk 12. Strawberry Moon 0.25pt e/w (8/1 Bet365*/Boylesports*/Ladbrokes)
7.15 Thirsk 9. San Jose City 0.25pt e/w (9/1 Sportingbet, or 8/1 Bet365*/Boylesports*)

I have taken the very rare decision to go with three horses each way in this race as there is a lot a value each way, all of them have the form to at least place and the market really lends itself to this type of betting. Of course we could lose on the race but if the favourite falls short we are quite likely to get a winner whilst having a good degree of insurance should it not disappoint.

Lays today(ONLY AT 3.0 OR UNDER)
2.00 Leicester 4. Donativum
2.15 Carlisle 2. Bragging Rights, 9. Northumberland
6.15 Thirsk 10. Petite Denise
6.30 Windsor 1. Prolific , 2. Danehill Destiny (structure your bets so that you lose very little if either of these win, you should be able to this to a very small liability)

The database part of the site is still down but should be back within the next 24hrs I hope. It seems I’ve been targeted by a hacker who has nothing better than to mess up other peoples businesses. Unfortunately although protected by a secure code and several steps within the script this means that potentially the information you have provided me (such as your email address, payment history, name) could be used by someone for unscrupulous purposes. If you have received any Tipster Spam since Friday that you think could be related to this then I apologise and invite you to forward this to me as it may provide clues as to who the perpretator is, although the chances of finding out who is responsible are very remote.

Todays info:
4.30 Leicester 6. Mushtaaq 0.8pt e/w (4/1 Ladbrokes/Bluesquare/VCBet)
Likely bet in the evening racing to follow.

Firstly, still no joy with the website. The membership software is not recognizing the database at all for some reason and without technical support I am not in position to do anything with it. I should be able to speak with support tomorrow and the situation will be resolved hopefully within the next 48 hrs.
There are no each way value selections today.

Yesterday our first ever greyhound bet came in for us despite not getting to the first corner in front, I am not an expert in greyhounds at all, but when someone who does know their stuff describes it as “the bet of the year” you have to have a few quid on if you can get the price.
A couple of lays came in yesterday for those who got them matched, I have had a marginally profitable May with the lays but it is fair to say that the system has not performed as well as last year at this early stage in the flat season.

Lays: (Only at 3.0 or under)
2.10 Bath 4. Dubais Gazal, 15. Sparta Rebel

I am experiencing problems with my database, until I can get to a resolution on this I’ll be posting the messages here. Please accept my apologies for this problem.

Here is todays information for those of you how remembered where to look in the event of a problem with my normal site!
Each Way Value:
I have been looking to oppose Wingbeat in the 3.40 at Donaster with Light Hearted but the price is a bit skinny at 7/2 and as is always the case in these high class races, there is a lack of “rags” in race meaning a lot of competition for the minor places. With that in mind there is no bet today - unless you can get 9/2 or better for Light Hearted, in which case it would be case of having to take the price for 0.5pt e/w.
3.40 Doncaster 6. Light Hearted 0.5pt e/w ONLY IF 8 RUN AND 9/2 OR BETTER IS AVAILABLE.

Bonus Bets/Comments:
Greyhounds:
8.45 Wimbledon Ninja Jamie 40pts(4% stake) win @ Evens with Bet365/Paddypower/Boylesports

Lays (These are only selections if they can be matched at under 3.0)
2.35 Doncaster 11. Seaway
3.50 Haydock 4. Mesyaal
4.05 Goodwood 6. Party Cat
7.40 Lingfield 9. Skruton